Popcorn Effect

In the wake of the loss of a Great Mind like İlber Ortaylı, I felt a sadness intensified by my father's.

While I apply the Popcorn Effect to many observations in life, I want to explain its relevance to the global population of Great Minds. I named this after the experience of popping corn on a stove. When the pan is cold, it takes time for the first kernel to pop. Gradually, the frequency of the pops increases, reaches a peak, and then dies out over time.

In a nuclear fission reactor, a neutron source initiates a chain reaction. Initially, neutron density and fission frequency are low. As time passes, the reactions intensify. I have observed this pattern in various other phenomena as well.

I propose the Popcorn Effect as a theory for the distribution of Great Minds in humanity. My knowledge of history is far less than that of Professor Ortaylı, but it appears that human genius peaked between the mid-19th and mid-20th centuries (1850-1950). I do not believe the percentage of such individuals in upcoming centuries will rival those years.

What I mean by Great Minds are individuals with profound liberal education. Humanity will increasingly lack such people, similar to the fading pops of heated corn. Thankfully, dad and I were lucky to watch such a Great Mind live over the past decades.

Farewell to İlber Ortaylı and Talât Kocaalioğlu. Love them both ❤️